Our Man in Pakistan

This is a guest post from Pakistani wonder-journalist Ali Chishti.  Ali is a lawyer (LLB in criminal law; his thesis was on Pakistani jihadi networks) who also reports for a range of Pakistani and international publications, including at times Military​.com .  An author of a  political biography of Altaf Hassain and the Muttahida Quami Movement, I’m very pleased to announce that his  Jihadi Godzilla and the Pakistani Intelligence Community is being printed as we speak.
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The United States is starting to plan peace negotiations with the Taliban, talks designed to end the fighting in Afghanistan.

How successful these talks will be is an open question.  Bruce Riedel, for example, has said that “it’s a long shot but worth the try.”

While the US and the Taliban edge closer to historic negotiations in Qatar, guerrilla leaders have opened an official office there.  Confidence Building Measures (often shortened to just “CBMs”) have been exchanged by both sides:  Washington seeks the release of U.S. Army soldier Bowe Bergdahl and kidnapped American aid worker Warren Weinstein — both of whom are said to be held at Miranshah, North Waziristan in Pakistan – while the insurgents have asked that five senior Taliban commanders held at Guantanamo Bay go back home.

There might be some complications there.  In Pakistan, doubts remain whether the Taliban in North Waziristan, guerrillas who are closer ideologically to al-Qaeda than some of the Afghan militias, will release the American prisoners if Mullah Omar orders it.

But there’s also talk that Gen. Ahmad Shuja Pasha, the ISI chief, recently made a “secret trip” to Dubai and Pakistan Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani flew to Qatar to help facilitate talks with the Taliban.

The question now becomes how seriously Barack Obama’s administration is about releasing Mullah Mohammad Fazal , a detainee at Guantanamo Bay.  He would take over the Taliban’s Qatar office, per the request of those in the so-called “Kabul setup.”

One of the closest friends of Mullah Omar, Fazal was tied to a massacre of thousands of Shia Hazaras in September of 1998.  His henchmen left their bodies to rot on the streets of Mazar-i-Sharif, where they were eaten by dogs.   And while the Obama administration is right in  making initiatives to talk to their enemies, they shouldn’t forget the other ethnic parties and parliamentarians in Afghanistan who had fought the Taliban for years and might feel left out, such as the Hazaras who haven’t forgotten Fazal.

There can be no peace without everyone being on board, including Pakistan and the sectarian warlords in Afghanistan.

The Pakistanis who had previously been apprehensive about direct talks between the Taliban and the Americans — and had arrested Mullah Baradar in Karachi in  2010 – have seemed to calm down now that ISI’s Pasha has visited Qatar to confer with U.S. Central Command officials.  His actions suggest that ISI would like to take a rain check on the issue and let Pakistan’s foreign minister, Hina Rabbani Kher,   a leader considered to be close to the ISI, schedule a visit with Kabul.

Pakistani security officials nevertheless would be delighted with Fazal’s homecoming since he had traditionally been “Pro-Pakistan,” according to a senior official.  But he also might become an American trump card because while Fazal is a friend of Pakistan he’s also a diehard enemy of Iran.  The return of a man who helped to kill thousands of Shiites could cause friction between Tehran and Islamabad, to the point that it scuttles the planned Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline.

Afghan boss Hamid Karzai had been opposed to any direct talks between the U.S. and the Taliban.  But now he seems to have quieted down and has been offering conciliatory words in public, even reaching out to other powers with influence in the region.

“Even if the Taliban office is established in Qatar, we will obviously pursue other efforts in the region, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey,” Karzai said.

“Saudi Arabia has played an important role in the past. We value that and look forward to continued support and contact with Saudi Arabia in continuing the peace process,” he added.

While the Taliban  and United States move closer to talks, American leaders should consider all their options but they must never forget Pakistan’s central importance in the decade-long war.  Leaders in Islamabad have for a long time provided safe haven to the Quetta Shura.  To attempt to forge an agreement with the Taliban while disregarding Pakistan will lead only to Islamabad spoiling the game.

The only way to remedy that is to warn Pakistan that any spoiler, any blackmail, could result in the complete breakdown of relations between the two countries.

The talks might begin in Qatar, but peace runs through Pakistan.

Tags: Ali Chishti, ISI, Pakistan, Taliban, talks