Time to Leave Afghanistan

AndrewC January 21st, 2012 at 4:22 pm

The amount of time, blood, and treasure we have spent on Afghanistan would suggest it poses a major threat to our national security interests, when in fact it does not. We’ve seriously degraded the core leadership of al-Qaeda and killed bin Laden; we’ve accomplished our original goals. It’s time we begin transitioning out and balance the Taliban threat with local allies and limited military incursions to remove potential threats to our interests.

MikeF January 22nd, 2012 at 7:24 am

The real lesson from this past decade? Joseph Tainter’s concept of energy expenditure developed in his book The Collapse of Complex Societies (1990).

We, as a people, have a finite amount of energy to use. While some have argued that we’ve wasted blood and treasure in these endeavors, the problem is actually greater: we’ve expended massive amounts of energy (intellectual capital, time, resources).

There is a point of diminishing returns that happens quickly after a regime change where any additionally external effort (COIN, CT, Nation-building, etc) is scaled back exponentially.

Consider how much effort has been placed into these wars for limited gains, and then compare that by asking the question

Where could we be better expending our energy?

Charles January 22nd, 2012 at 7:48 pm

That’s an excellent point and most often we direct it at the individual level, cautioning leaders about doing too much etc — we say “manage your time”, “manage and properly set your priorities” but what we really mean is to manage your energy level/expenditure. I think the same applies to a nation or organization that is supporting a war.

Madhu January 24th, 2012 at 12:24 am

Er, with non-military I meant the state support such as by ISI. Again, I agree with the rest of your comment.

Madhu January 24th, 2012 at 12:33 am

In a Military​.com article, in 2009, GEN. McKiernan was quite explicit about Pakistani safe havens:

” “Until (militant) safe havens are eliminated across the border in Pakistan, there cannot be peace in Afghanistan,” he said, generating enthusiastic applause from the elders.
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U.S. and Afghan officials say that Taliban militants use lawless areas in northwest Pakistan as safehavens to train, arm and rest. Insurgents then travel back over the Afghan-Pakistan border to launch attacks.
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Afterward, several Afghan elders spoke. One picked up on McKiernan’s Pakistan message.
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“When you come here and the Taliban is pushed out, why doesn’t the violence stop? Destroy their safe havens,” the Afghan said. ” http://​www​.military​.com/​n​e​w​s​/​a​r​t​i​c​l​e​/​m​c​k​i​e​r​n​a​n​-af…

Madhu January 24th, 2012 at 12:46 am

“The Pakistani report is sure to further sour US/Pakistan relations, which are at an all-time low since the Mohmand clash. Pakistan closed down NATO’s supply routes for Afghanistan; ejected the US from the Shamsi Air Base, where drone strikes against al Qaeda were staged; and has said it is reevaluating its cooperation with the US in the War on Terror. The US placed the drone program on hold for 55 days before targeting al Qaeda on Jan. 11. There have been two other strikes since.” — Bill Roggio, Long War Journal Read more: http://​www​.longwarjournal​.org/​a​r​c​h​i​v​e​s​/​2​0​1​2​/​0​1​/pa…

OTOH, it’s okay for me to complain but maybe people in charge should stay mum on the subject and just pay up until we are safely withdrawn. No point in making things worse.

Glockster20 January 26th, 2012 at 2:38 pm

We should had gone in whipped some but of those who needed it an been out of there. Like Iraq we were there way to long and personally see I see no reason fro being there in the first place! A-Stan is way past time to leave and say it has not been that fun!