Canned Peaches, Heavy Syrup

Canned Peaches, Heavy Syrup

I confess that I listen to a great deal of National Public Radio.

Unlike boring public television, there’s been a something of a radio renaissance at NPR.  While the rest of the nation’s airwaves are increasingly homogenized into Clear Channel clones or shrill political agitprop ‚  NPR and satellite radio seem the only sane or interesting oases on the dial (or transponder box).

But just because I like This American Life doesn’t mean that I’m going to give NPR a pass.  Rachel Martin’s zippy follow on the retirement of Gen. David Petraeus – now bound for the CIA – traffics in the stale myths that were manufactured to ease his rise to four-star, legends  I doubt anyone seriously believes except Beltway reporters and think tank wonks of increasingly dubious credibility.


So let’s fisk her copy, shall we?

1.  “The most famous man in the U.S. Army left the military on Wednesday.”

Worldwide, is Petraeus really more famous than Bradley Manning?  I think one could make a pretty good argument that even if the name of the PFC doesn’t ring a bell his body of work sure does.

And Manning is still in the U.S. Army, albeit stationed in a place a tad less comfortable than the digs provided to Petraeus in Langley.

This isn’t to say that Manning turned out to be a better soldier than Petraeus, only that I suspect globally he’s better known.

2.  I whispered to my colleagues in the press corps, “Is that Gen. Petraeus?”  “Couldn’t be,” they responded. “Four-star generals don’t do their own mic checks.”

Damn it.  Can we get over the cheap hagiography?  Stanley McChrystal living like an aerobic monk in Bagram, Jim Mattis as the “warrior monk” at CENTCOM or all the corn pone dolloped with sugar we’ve had to ingest over the aw shucks Everyman stack of Petraeus pancakes served to us by newspapers – I’ve had my fill and I’m ready to puke.

Generals are pampered creatures.  They’re surrounded by large staffs.  They have dedicated drivers, valets, press analysts and a retinue of caretakers.  The higher they go in the bureaucracy the larger and, typically, more talented their keepers.

When you see a general doing his own work it usually means any of three things:  A) He’s micromanaging again; B) He’s putting on a show for easy touches like Rachel Martin; or, C) All the above, the final act of the consummate showman.

After she gushed that, I wonder if she passed a note in homeroom saying that she thought Dave Petraeus was kinda cute.

3.  “After being credited with turning around the war in Iraq, he was rewarded with a prestigious job as the head of Central Command based in Florida — overseeing both the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan but without having to be in a war zone.”

There are two ways one could read this.

First of all, he didn’t “turn around the war in Iraq.”  Even his own Baghdad staff has begun to second-guess the “Surge” myth, perhaps because the historical record points to the Iraqis doing much of that on their own, thanks to a brutal civil war won by a confederation of Shiite groups.

Then there’s always been the nagging questions about his CENTCOM post.  It was controversial from the start, with many critics concerned that it was asking too much of any man to have to balance responsibilities between Iraq, where he had made a legacy of sorts, and Afghanistan, where he had no stake.

Several Barack Obama loyalists in the White House also told me that they feared Petraeus would run against the president in 2012, a concern I thought was a little overblown (I’m not sure King David could beat him or even win the GOP nomination) but one that spoke to their opinion that the general was always running for something else a tad higher than his present position.

Which is why he also might have been stashed in Afghanistan when his acolyte, McChrystal, imploded for all sorts of reasons that have nothing to do with prosecuting wars.

Well, wars overseas anyway.

4.  As the story goes, Petraeus accepted the job without even calling his wife to talk it over.

He could’ve reached her on the Better Business Bureau’s military hotline.  That was before she departed to take a gig in Obama’s Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, safeguarding military families from predatory lenders who aren’t AAFES.

Chortle, chortle.

5.  After his yearlong tour in Afghanistan, he wasn’t made chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff or even Chief of Staff of the Army, as many had expected.

Zero people expected that.  No, let me get a new count.

Yeah, still zero.

There was no way Obama was going to appoint Petraeus to be the C in the JCS.  He liked Hoss Cartwright and, well, I’m not going to get into what lassoed Hoss but Petraeus was never high on that list and no one knew it better than he did.

Long dogged by accusations that Petraeus and McChrystal worked to box his new administration in on an Afghanistan policy that didn’t exactly bear fruit, they sure weren’t going to let him run the military (or even the Army).

They liked Dempsey as CSA.  Had things gone better for other candidates for the CJCS throne he would never have risen to seize it.

6.  In addition to leading two wars, Petraeus wrote the Army’s now famous field manual on counterinsurgency, or in military parlance, “COIN.”

OK, can we kill this nonsense once and for all?  A coterie of military minds came together at Leavenworth to scribble the damned thing. The ringleader for that wasn’t really Petraeus but rather the wonderful Con Crane.

And another thing, if you ever see “COIN strategy” used as a phrase, take a shot.  It’s the drinking game that’s sweeping the nation!  “COIN strategy” also is a contradiction and explains part of the problem with the gurus of Petraeus.  COIN is NOT a process that can substitute for a strategy.  It might be a part of a means to an end, but it’s not the end itself.

And if you don’t believe me, if you click your ruby slippers and utter “Marjah” three times you’re not transported magically back to Leavenworth, Kansas.

Your ass is still stuck trading rounds with Muj while his cousin in the Karzai kleptocracy takes your tax money to grow dope to sell to your bum relations back home.  What a war.  What a “strategy.”

7.  “Now rest assured, I am not out to give one last boost to the COIN or to try recruit all you for COINdinista nation,” he said. “I do believe, however, that we have re-learned the timeless lesson that we don’t always get to fight the wars for which we’re most prepared or most inclined.”

As many of you know, I’m the father of the noun “COINdinista” and his twin bastard “COINtra.”

In the evolution of the words – by far the most popular being “COINdinista” – I’ve been flummoxed by how they’ve morphed to serve myths that they were ginned up to lampoon.

Perhaps because of the debacle that is Afghanistan, we no longer have the “timeless” COINdinista lesson that population-centric, hearts and minds pacification actually works but rather today the notion that we “don’t always get to fight the wars for which we’re most prepared or most inclined.”

Wow, have we watered down “COINdinista!”  It now could stand for something anyone would find in Thucydides, Clausewitz or Sun Tzu.

In a millennium, if great robot minds are speaking of that early 21st century strategic genius Carl “COINdinista” Prine I know that my nefarious plot worked.

I’m also scheming to corner the global frozen orange juice concentrate market.  So drink up!

8.  In his remarks, Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the manual “would not only serve as the blueprint for our success in Iraq and Afghanistan, but would also go on to become a best-seller. Only Dave Petraeus could take a military manual and make it a great stocking stuffer.”

You know where you can stuff that load of BS, Mullen?  It ain’t in a stocking.

Listen, the COIN manual actually was a pretty bad blueprint for Iraq.  In fact, the “success” (one hates to even call it that) likely was written by the drill bit, the roadside execution and the ethnic cleansing of whole Sunni neighborhoods and villages by Shiite death squads in cahoots with the Ministry of the Interior.

But Con Crane would look pretty silly in a turban and we’re too stupid to invite Moqtada al-Sadr to teach at Leavenworth so we’re left with the myth that we have, not the reality that actually matters.

What’s telling about the COIN manual is how outdated it was the second it hit the presses.  I give Con Crane a great deal of credit for herding the cats and being intellectually honest about best practices, but those lessons weren’t imported  from Iraq or Afghanistan.  Rather, they arrived from counterinsurgencies targeting Maoist revolutions a half-century ago.

Most of those who wrote the doctrine were as dead as Mao when the Leavenworth crew began toiling on FM 3–24.  I would argue that so was the efficacy of the doctrine.

9.  That was a tribute to how Petraeus turned things around in northern Iraq as commander of the 101st Airborne, and later with the surge strategy that ultimately helped turn the war.

Horsesh**.

10. “The Army has never really liked David Petraeus much,” said Tom Ricks, who has written two books on the Iraq war and is now with the Center for a New American Security. “They don’t see him as being at the core of their culture. Here is this sort of intellectual guy who doesn’t seem to mind the culture of Washington — reporters and politicians. And at a time when they were saying nothing was working, he found a way to work in Iraq.”

After uttering that, one of the many staffers for Petraeus rushed over and tickled Ricks’ belly as he rolled on the grass like a friskly lil kitten.  This is the typical reward for the dutiful Beltway pundit or reporter who is most appreciative of Petraeus.

Based largely on the myths described above, Ricks’ The Gamble was printed on good quality paper, but unfortunately it’s not soft enough to really exploit inside the Port-a-Potty.  So I don’t know how much utility it otherwise retains.

But that’s for another blog entry.  Here we get Ricks at his most idiotic — slapping the Army for not being “intellectual” or part of the “culture of Washington.”

My ass.  Anyone who has spent five minutes in DC can point out no small number of  uniformed bureaucrats who scoot nimbly like waterbugs about their lake of DC reporters and politicos, obfuscating and dissembling, building political points and jabbing at their rivals.

Why, Arlington, Va., home of the Pentagon, must be like Mars to DC’s sun – so very far away from those think tanks, journos and politicos in orbit around the glorious star of Capitol Hill.

Ha!

Ricks and others often like to portray Petraeus and former CSA George Casey as being Manichean opposites, but that’s just silly.  The son of a general who died during an accident in Vietnam, Casey attended Georgetown and rose along with Petraeus – the guy who married the daughter of his boss at West Point – sometimes at the same commands.

For example, they served together on Carl E. Vuono’s staff.  Say what you want about Vuono, but he could spot talent and knew just the rising mid-career officers to pluck for his tutelage.

And surely a warrior-scholar like Petraeus, PhD Princeton, is so much brighter than Gian Gentile, PhD Stanford, the knuckle-dragger who just doesn’t get it, right?

Damn that gets old.  War is an intellecutal pursuit.   I’ve never met any general or sergeant who was very good at his (or her) job who wasn’t also a bright, learning creature.

NPR probably cut Ricks off when he began to preach about West Point and the other service academies being worse than community colleges, so I’m at least thankful for that.

11.  John Nagl disagrees. He helped Petraeus write that counterinsurgency field manual and was in Germany this week, teaching a course for the German military of defense on COIN.

Yeah, I love how NPR frames the debate over the legacy of Petraeus between Ricks and the guy in the corner office just past Andrew Exum’s Lego soldiers.  Hey, NPR, for even a greater diversity of voices why didn’t you reach out to Dave Barno?  Wasn’t Nagl’s mini-me, Brian Burton, around to propose making Petraeus a 10-star general who could run the CIA and the Marine Corps on the side?

Maybe I missed it, but I don’t see that NPR even identified Nagl as working in the same think tank as Ricks.  I don’t know what to make of that.  I also don’t know what to make of something called the “German military of defense.”  Seems redundant.

Inevitably, it all came down to either of two dissenting opinions:  Petraeus is the greatest and smartest general of all time who changed the Army permanently or Petraeus is the greatest and smartest general of all time who couldn’t change the Army permanently because everyone else in the Army isn’t as smart or great as David Petraeus.

OK, I’ll be the first one to say that Petraeus is a very fine mind who deserves an immense amount of credit for capitalizing on the results of several Iraqi civil wars.  He works well with diplomats and he certainly can titillate reporters.  We’re probably a stronger Army and a better nation for his service to both.

But now that he’s retired maybe I can convince my fellow scribes to quit with the easy hagiography in lieu of serious reporting about one of the most complex men of his generation.

Enough already with the canned Peaches in heavy syrup.  Give us something else to eat, OK?

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Carl:

Nice post, excellent actually.

General Petraeus has been a competent general at the tactics of pop centric coin; nothing more and nothing less.

Yet he like the other members of the Coin General’s club have failed at strategy.

Interestingly he is comparable to George Washington, but as an opposite. GW was a failure as a tactical general (unlike Benedict Arnold who was superb) but GW was the master of strategy during the American Revolution. General Petraeus has done the inverse: reasonably competent at the tactics of coin but unable to discern the larger strategic truth that coin doesn’t work, and its operational method is not worth the amount of blood and treasure it requires to achieve core policy ends.

A failure of generalship to be sure (Version 2 of Yingling).

It actually pained me to write it, Gian. NPR’s reporter on this, Rachel Martin, is one of the best of her craft and she worked her way up the hard way.

I wonder if she even wrote this, so I’ve mostly called it “NPR” throughout my goofiness. I only know her work, not her, but in the past she’s been first rate.

Gian,

Wouldn’t it be more correct to say that the US version of pop-centric large scale expeditionary COIN (and nation building) with the US in the lead does not solve the problems of another nation.

But other nations have conducted and will continue to need to be able to conduct COIN. Nations need to be able to counter insurgencies they are faced with or suffer defeat at the hands of rebels. Counterinsurgency is a necessity for survival in some countries.

What is a bankrupt strategy for me is having the US conduct large scale expeditionary and interventionist COIN and nation building for the host nation because then it in effect is an occupation which I think in the long run is more counter-productive.

Yes Dave you are quite right. Agree that it works for places like the PI or Colombia; but then again it is their country and the government isn’t going anywhere and can dedicated decades to carrying it out.

Agree especially with your last paragraph

g

Huh, and all this time I thought it was that other general that is credited with ultimately turning the corner in the Iraq War. You know, that IRGC Brigadier General Suleimani– the one that brokered the final peace between the IA and Shiite militias, and also helped facilitate the Shiite conquest of Baghdad (Baghdad: an old Persian word, meaning “Gift of God”).

This article is an example of two things that bug me. First is unnecessary bashing of senior leadership with questionable arguments, qualifications in Carl’s case (and to a lesser extent COL Gentile) or reason to do so. Second, why assume that historical lessons of George Washington in another time, place, and circumstances apply to General Petraeus’ Afghanistan and Iraq. They are entirely different from each other in a modern context let alone from the way we fought in the Revolutionary War.

If adaptation and General Mattis “improvise, improvise, improvise” are critical, they still apply in an operating environment that include RPGs, not muskets, and helicopters/airdrops, not long foot marches and wagon resupply. I don’t recall hearing about IEDs in 1776. There were no powered vehicles let alone armored ones. The artillery lacked anything resembling precision. Soldiers lined up in lines due to the nature of musket loading and lack of C2 radios.

In the final analysis, even if you try to compare the Soviet war in Afghanistan, with its different motivations than our own, you gotta admit that over a decade of war (and the early part of ours completely underresourced) we have had around 1600 lost while the Soviets had 14,000 dead using a lot more heavy armor and heavy-handed techniques. There are reasons beyond improvisation and the courage of our servicemen.

Say what you want about pop-centric versus enemy-centric. It has reduced our casualties and safeguarded villages/towns/cities and caused the enemy to come to us rather than us playing into their hands by doing nothing but “search and destroy” on complex (Afghanistan) and urban (Iraq) terrain they better understand.

Oh. Well then it’s better to lose a war with fewer casualties, I suppose. Take that, Soviets!

Move Forward, eventually we might get to a notion of “strategy” and then discuss a realistic “end” for us to achieve.

And poor, poor senior leadership! We must be nicer to our celebrity generals!

Does it look like we are losing since General Petraeus changes and the surge occurred? I’ll agree we are spending a lot, largely because we waited eight years to surge more forces and start more night raids. Imagine what it would cost if we were all in with lots of HBCTs like the Soviets.

Do you think problems would have ended after Special Ops and Airpower ousted the Taliban in 2001? Do you believe things would have fixed themselves if we immediately withdrew? How about the opposite extreme? Should we slash and burn like General Sherman. Do you advocate invading Pakistan to flush out the rest of the sanctuaries.

What if we had paid the same attention in Afghanistan as we did in Iraq and surged early. Would that have helped? Say what you want about the Anbar Awakening, Marine MI guys were saying all was lost and it sure looked that way. Without coalition partners in nearby COPs constantly patrolling, the outcome likely would have been the same as when *****es tried to revolt against Hussein back after Desert Storm.

MF: I never used the “L” (lessons) word which for a historian rubs the wrong way.

Remember MF what St Carl taught us about history: that it should inform our judgment about war but never accompany the soldier to the battlefield. In this way Clausewitz was warning against the use of history as lessons or templates for current action.

I use history to help me think through current problems, as a form of reenactment if you will. I used the word “comparable” to illustrate a difference in ways of generalship between Petraeus and GW.

Really, really, MF there were no tanks at Trenton; gosh i thought there were. Maybe this would be a good episode for the History Chanel’s Deadliest Warrior: Petraeus takes on GW at Trenton.

First off awesome post Carl, seriously had me rolling on the floor with the mental image of Ricks being tickled like a kitten. THat and the jab at intellectual diversity at CNAS were gut bustingly funny. This passage caught my eye though:
“They liked Dempsey as CSA. Had things gone better for other candidates for the CJCS throne he would never have risen to seize it.”

I’m wondering when the truth will come out about Stavridis, I know he’s technically got a year or so left as SACNATO/CINCEU so he technically still has a gig. But how/why was he left as the one ubber-hyped 4star without a chair in last months shake up? I figured he had to be a solid bet for CNO at least if not in the running for VCJCS, since I figure they wouldn’t do back to back Navy CJCS.

1 question, 1 point:

Why the asterices (sp?) instead of spelling out Shiites? Did I miss a memo somewhere?

Also, re Stavridis: it was reported in a couple of places that he had a bad interview with POTUS and so didn’t get CJCS or CNO.

There also was a financial kerfuffle involving the admiral, but he was found to have done nothing wrong. I was told that Libya might’ve sunk him. They wanted him to be around to fight that non-war war. Also, there would’ve been some service rivalry over another admiral running the JCS.

The filter we have doesn’t like s-h-i-i-t-e-s. Since there are five comments I can’t even get out of the filter cache I prefer that over the alternative.

Day late and a dollar short here, but what the hell.…

“…believe things would have fixed themselves…” What things? The things we are working on now in Afghanistan? Those things were not “things” in 2001/2 when the US rolled in. Purportedly the US invaded because the Taliban supported al Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan, or words along similar lines. Without delving too deep into the semantics, our goal was to prevent future attacks on the US. So, if we had simply attacked Afghanistan as a punishment for supporting al Qaeda’s presence what, exactly, would be the current downside to having immediately withdrawn? Is there a magic cave in Tora Bora that we have to guard lest the cave fairies provide a new idea to Islamic extremists for another large-scale attack on the US? OBL had sanctuary in Afghanistan pre-2001. He could have found the same level of sanctuary in any number of locations and nothing about 9/11 would have been any different.

The national strategy of “remove the Taliban and secure Afghanistan” as equal to religious extremists being incapable of promulgating a large-scale attack on the US is flawed. That was not a strategy, it was wishful thinking. If we had surged earlier (amazingly large assumption of capacity and will in this statement) in Afghanistan would our puppet government here be better? Or would we have just spent that much more money here, have lost that many more lives, expended that much more political capital in the region to end up in the same place where we currently find ourselves.

Minus a coherent national strategy that binds all facets of US effort in Afghanistan to the same objective we cannot “win” because we cannot all describe “win” in the same manner.

“Does it look like we are losing since General Petraeus changes and the surge occurred?” Yes. Yes it does. In large part because we, the US military, appear to be institutionally incapable of admitting that anything we do may be wrong. That our actions in Afghanistan over the previous few years have not been effective. That making any significant change is unnecessary because if we keep shouting loud and long enough we will, indeed, prevail. And we will not actually define “prevail” because then we might box ourselves into a strategy or course of action that is less than palatable.

I like the idea of a magical cave filled with Taliban.

What things? Things like Gulbuddin Hekmatyr shelling Kabul like he had done previously. Nothing there to stop him right. Things like who IS in charge. No U.S. protected elections or parliament. No Karzai would have been elected most likely. Civil war would have ensued and Pakistan would have made sure that Pashtuns and Taliban prevailed.

Think we would be taking out the Haqqani network with Predator/Reaper if we had bailed early? Would Osama bin Laden and Mohammad Omar have been hiding and less effective or operating freely and still alive along with all his henchman now dead? Think the madrassas would still be cranking out extremists who…in lieu of a local enemy to fight…would have boarded airplanes headed for Europe and America or launched terror attacks against nuclear India?

Now look at places where we did just leave things unfinished. Egypt has sabotage of gas pipelines, more troops in the Sinai, and a burned Israeli embassy. Libya has missing MANPADs and rebels who admit they fought for al Qaeda previously. Northern/Southern Watch surely would have brought down Saddam Hussein and guess General Dempsey never should have brought his division back to fight al Sadr’s militia? Somalia fixed itself after we left, as did Lebanon, right?

Except they would not have needed to hide in caves since we would have had no nearby bases and would have been taking guess shots with cruise missiles. Remember that Yemen, Somalia, and Lebanon…even Iran and Syria are fairly accessible from the sea. Not so for Afghanistan.

How is it in America’s national security interests to kill Haqqanis with Reapers?

Al Sadr outlasted Dempsey. Good thing. Sadr pacified Iraq.

Read the September 3, 2011 article in Long War Journal about how the Haqqani network orchestrated the Inter-Continental Hotel attack in Kabul from Pakistan and similarly provided advice to LeT terrorists during their attack in Mumbai. The major Paktika foreign fighter camp attacked in Afghanistan in late July 2011 had Haqqani network sponsorship.

If we had pulled out in 2002, the ANSF would not exist (unless it was Taliban/al Qaeda-based or Northern Alliance resistance) and could not have been effective in the Inter-Continental Hotel attack. Even Diane Feinstein considered the Haqqani network international terrorists.

Why should I read their analysis? Mine was much better. And it wasn’t orchestrated from Pakistan. The staging area was in the suburbs of Kabul, the operation paid for by funds gained inside Kabul and designed for the consumption of the people of Kabul.

And how many hotels in the US have been bombed by the Haqqanis?

Exactly.

Your replies, in my opinion, are disingenuous. Move Forward: you are making (again: my reading of your commentary) assumptions that had the US not been in Afghanistan post-2002 then the whole region would have gone to hell in a handbasket and that AQ would have been filling planes, etc, with terrorists trained in Mulla Omar sponsored training camps located somewhere in the AfPak DMZ that we have been Reaper-ing the crap out of for the last decade.

Not trying to put words in your mouth here, this is my impression based on your words.

And I would argue that if the US, in 2001–2001, had provided appropriate regional incentives then we could have avoided much of your predicted outcomes from our not being here for the last decade. Would Afghanistan still be suffering under Taliban rule? Probably. So? Lots of places in the world are ruled by terrible governments that mistreat their people. If the sole criteria for deposing an autonomous government is that the government in question abuses its governmental responsibilities through the curtailment of its citizen’s rights, then why is the US not involved in many more of these types of conflicts?

It took us a decade of serious looking to kill OBL. Mulla Omar still runs the largest Taliban network that is causing us problems here in Afghanistan. Pakistan, after providing sanctuary to OBL for years, still provides same to Mulla Omar and friends. “Less effective” is descriptively similar to “jobs saved” — it does really mean anything. You cannot quantify “less effective,” your assumptions are no more valid than my own with regard to what would have happened if… And we are going to leave Afghanistan before things are “finished.” This whole develop governance thing does not produce a government that is perfect, we will leave and something that is going to have to be close enough is what we will leave behind.

Egypt and Libya? Seriously? You’re comparing two countries that the US did not invade with a country currently hosting 100k US troops and associated contracted personnel? That is disingenuous.

With due respect, few cover AfPak as well as LWJ. If you did, you would have caught my error in saying Haqqani was calling terrorists in Mumbai…my bad. But there is a common ISI link. You also miss the point that Haqqani and other sponsors of terror and foreign fighters are what led to attacks of several famous buildings in the U.S. Our hands-off approach in the 90s did nothing to preclude such terrorist attacks. A hands-on approach has led to no serious attacks in a decade.

Am I exaggerating? Don’t believe so. Incentives? No shortage of those and no commensurate benefit unless employed to deter impressions of occupation. Terrorist organizations less threatened at their homes create more frequent and better-executed attacks in ours. Egypt/Libya exemplify the current response of letting things fix themselves or using air/seapower only. The Eqyptian response probably was necessary. The Libyan one was not. In both cases we will see long-term consequences.

I merely assumed that you confused Haqqani with LET, the masterminds behind Mumbai, the CIA forward station bombing and the car bomb in Manhattan.

I’ve written about both already — and interviewed experts on this very blog who discussed them — so what is the point about reiterating it?

Yes, there’s an historical link between LeT, Haqqanis and ISI. But ISI is an agency of our ally, Pakistan. By your reasoning, the US should not merely fight the Haqqanis in Afghanistan to achieve our national security goals (such as they are), but also ISI and Pakistan.

Our “hands-off” approach also didn’t waste more than a trillion dollars, kill more than 5,000 of our military and maim many multiples of those so that we might squander military innovation in a war of choice that increasingly seems to give us fewer choices.

You suggest, inexplicably, that we would retreat to the world of Sept. 10, 2001. But I don’t know anyone who is suggesting that.

Here are those blasts from the past:
http://​www​.lineofdeparture​.com/​2​0​1​1​/​0​7​/​0​6​/​g​r​a​b​-ka…
http://​www​.lineofdeparture​.com/​2​0​1​1​/​0​7​/​1​3​/​y​o​n​-​is-…

And I’d like to think that the Afghanistan NGO Safety Organisation (ANSO), the Open Society Foundation, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Afghanistan Analysts Network, the United Nations (UNAMA, UNODC), Citha D. Maass, World Bank, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction and the International Crisis Group in Kabul and Brussels manage to cover Afghanistan as well as Long War Journal.

“No shortage of those and no commensurate benefit unless employed to deter impressions of occupation.” Afraid that I do not understand this statement. My argument was that had the US not occupied but, rather, executed some military operation, departed, and initiated appropriate incentives then the US would not have been worse off. Certainly not any worse than we are now.

“Terrorist organizations less threatened at their homes create more frequent and better-executed attacks in ours.” This I do not believe at all. Can you provide justification for this assertion? I can think of two significant terrorist acts within the boundaries of the US that can be directly attributed to external terrorist organizations: the initial attempt at the World Trade Center (failed car bomb in garage), and 9/11. Post 9/11 — when the US is safer because the US is occupying Afghanistan — we have the underwear man, the fizzling car bomb in Times Square, the Army major at Ft Hood (I would contend he was strongly influenced by an external terrorist organization, as well as being an idiot), Mumbai, the London bombings, and Madrid. Can’t come up with anything else right off the top of my head. It would seem that post 9/11 when our presence in Af/Iraq is supposed to be preventing these attacks that they have increased in numbers.

So perhaps I am wrong and that a lot more occurred prior to our invading Afghanistan. But if I am correct then your logic is beyond wrong.

What Egyptian response? We watched. So in Egypt, where the world observed, the “response” was necessary? And in Libya, where the world intervened and provided the support that, arguably, allowed the rebels to continue their efforts against Qaddafi — that was unnecessary? Isn’t this assertion the opposite of your argument for intervention in order to prevent terrorists from attacking the US?

A recent Washington Post article cited USAID employee costs in Afghanistan at $410-570K annually. In contrast, a Soldier costs $694K. The difference is that the Soldier can protect the USAID employees who actually venture outside Kabul. How many would do so without ground security or even show up in country? Servicemen also can support many projects themselves and help the ANSF do the same to show they are helping, not occupying.

India and other contractors have assisted the Afghan government for years. How would they have done that without security when they already are attacked, kidnapped, and their embassy attacked by the Haqqani network no doubt with ISI assistance? The U.S. embassy is under attack as I write this but the ANSF are performing credibly only because we stuck around to train them.

The terrorist attempts you cite since 9/11 are minor compared to the two cited prior and multiple embassy and barracks attacks. Of greatest concern is the prospect for terrorists obtaining WMD similar to that employed by a fringe group in the Japanese subway attack. Carl has written about similar possibilities. With Haqqani, LeT, and Pakistani Taliban so close to questionably secure WMD in Pakistan, we should be concerned.

After successful ground stability operations in the Balkans, Sinai, and elsewhere, we cannot use high logistical costs of isolated Afghanistan to write off ground force employment in areas where trouble is likely. In Egypt, we let a friend who had kept peace for decades twist in the wind, setting the precedent for Syria’s opposite response since they witnessed the failure of passivity. In Libya, we supported questionable rebels against an aging harmless leader who had renounced WMDs and now face the prospect of commercial aircraft being downed by MANPADs. Qaddaffi also perpetrated Lockerbie the last time we interrupted his fun with nurses.

Both Iraq and Afghanistan would have been basket cases without U.S. stability ops, just as any conflict between the Koreas would require some period of ground force stability. Some would have us decimate the size of our Army to pursue unlikely conflict with our largest economic partner, while Rome continues to burn in the Middle East, and Persia tries to reestablish itself this time with WMD. What’s wrong with that picture? Only madmen don’t subscribe to MAD.

Yes. Afghanistan and Iraq certainly needed the U.S. invasion and occupation in order to really prosper in safety.

I don’t understand why we should assume that the Haqqanis want to attack the US. That LeT in a limited way has tried and that they’re in the same milieu don’t equate to reasons to fear the organization like some seem to do.

And they are in Pakistan, not Afghanistan, anyway.

If you tell a Pakistani general that his nukes are “insecure” he will giggle.

Ok, in relative order:

“How would they have done that without security when they already are attacked, kidnapped, and their embassy attacked by the Haqqani network no doubt with ISI assistance?”, and also regarding current Kabul attacks: you appear (to me) to be positing a country that would look the same had the US not occupied for a decade. I contend that without the disrupting influences of US and coalition occupation Afghanistan and the region would be significantly different, and not in a bad way. Bad for some, no doubt. Shittier for women and Hazarras? Probably. But worse with respect to US national security? That assertion I would strongly disagree with.

“The terrorist attempts you cite since 9/11 are minor compared to the two cited prior and multiple embassy and barracks attacks.” So a failed attempt to explode a bomb in the WTC parking garage pre-9/11 is much more significant than failed attempts post-9/11? Your logic here escapes me.

“Of greatest concern is the prospect for terrorists obtaining WMD…” Then why does the US have very significant numbers of forces present in two countries that do not have WMD? How, exactly, does our presence in Afghanistan prevent any terrorist organization from getting their hands on the “questionably secure” WMD present in Pakistan? All of the terrorists are confused because of the coalition presence in Afghanistan? They cannot concentrate on attacks external to the region because we are here? If WMD is the “greatest” concern then shouldn’t the US be focusing on WMD security? Not to put too fine a point on it but Afghanistan does not have any WMD.

“After successful ground stability operations in the Balkans, Sinai, and elsewhere, we cannot use high logistical costs of isolated Afghanistan to write off ground force employment in areas where trouble is likely.” A sunk-costs argument? Really? That logic is ridiculous.

Egypt and Libya: You have lost me here. I have read what you wrote several time, and gone back to the initial comments where these two appeared. Seems like you’re working both sides of the aisle with this, that US actions in Eqypt and Libya and good and bad, that we’re right and wrong. Not sure what your contention is here.

“Both Iraq and Afghanistan would have been basket cases without U.S. stability ops…” And yet stability ops would not have been necessary without invasion / occupation. My original assertion, perhaps poorly stated, is that US presence in Afghanistan and Iraq does nothing to increase US national security and does not further US strategic interests. From a US strategic interest perspective, why do we care if Afghanistan and Iraq are basket cases? Short answer: we do not. Mid length answer: we could have provided significant national and regional incentives to both nations, incentives that included limited military actions inside the nations, that would have indicated to the rulers of those nations that change was needed. Hell, we could have invaded, eliminated the governments, and then left. War does leave the winner with obligations. That is what war is: you win and you get to do what you want. The fact that the US does attempt to assist the peoples of nations that we invade speaks well of the US, but does not make said actions an obligation. At some point the nation that was invaded must have obligations — if you were an Afghani in 2001 you had an obligation to kick al Qaeda out of Afghanistan. Your support, active, passive, or tacit, just means that you’re accepting that other nations will react to AQ actions and those reactions may negatively affect Afghanistan.

This dead horse is nearly dog food so it’s appropriate to reference yesterday’s Tom Rick’s non-pooch related Foreign Policy blog with its superb article about a Pakistani reported killed because he knew too much. It is long but informative to all who think Pakistani WMD are secure and that they are not part of the solution and problem. 1/6th of the world’s Muslims live in Pakistan. Were it to become a radical regime like Iran or just suffer a few radical generals/terrorists with access to some of the nation’s 100 nukes…remember that adage about only madmen not adhering to MAD?

It’s handy to assume the Taliban would have disassociated with al Qaeda, and embraced rights of women and less radical non-Pashtun majorities. But when the opposite reality occurred and we attempted a return bombing engagement, would Pakistan OK use of their airspace? Would there still be a Kyrgyzstan refueling or anywhere Reaper base? Could Pak-desired Taliban influence spread to the stans and into Russia for additional strategic depth?

I remain unconvinced. But, dead horses and all…

Carl, a bit late commenting on this post — didn’t read it until I hit the link from the Twinkle-twinkle post. Great points and a necessary counter to all the glorification. I think that we might unfortunately find that the recent COIN-as-implemented exercises in Iraq and Afghanistan will tarnish the historical value of the study of Thompson, Galula, etc, in their own places, times, and approaches under an umbrella of a COIN writ large tarnished by overreach and the replacement of a method for a strategy.

Isn’t it a strange time in our nation when NPR and most of the establishment smart set laud a general, tacitly or mutely cheer on the drone CT project (mostly because it is out of site/out of mind but also a type of “doing something”), and generally promote the militarized do-goodism brand of today’s U.S. foreign policy? I find mild hand-wringing, if that, or if not credulity, out of the moderate media such as NPR where I would expect and like to see skepticism and challenge.

But I think this is mostly just situational. Because the smart set’s favorite team is on the job. The gap between “General Betrayus,” Hillary’s “willing suspension of disbelief,” etc. and the matter-of-fact glorification of Petraeus at NPR and elsewhere is not that most journos and pundits are simply happy that the “surge worked” as the residue around the memory hole now has it. Petraeus may have retained his celebrity as a sort of new-Ike, as absurd as the context of that comparison surely is but by that I simply mean a well regarded, prominent general with name recognition and not too much adverse baggage to tarnish the image, with John McCain in office, but I doubt that NPR and the like would be offering us mid-day listeners such breezy adulation. Frankly, I’m surprised that Rachel Martin and her discussion group (or wherever she gets her information affirmation) haven’t at least taken Bob Woodward’s version of things (‘The War Within’) on board and questioned whether Petraeus was simply the selected implementer rather than the architect of the surge. Well, the conventional wisdom is satisfactory enough for now in Spectator U.S.A, but I thank you for challenging and mocking the perversity of what you aptly call the junior high class notes nature of the media regard for the COINista legend.

I don’t know! The hagiography of Petraeus was fixed in the Bush administration, long before the “Surge.” He was the hero of Mosul, a messianic figure who pacified a truculent people through good deeds and pure thoughts.

The real problem isn’t, as you note, with the general. I actually think that he’s a bright, nimble and gifted thinker. My beef is with the reporters, especially those in the Beltway, who lazily fixed themselves to a trope borrowed from sports, political or entertainment beats to give us a celebrity general.

We’ve had decent men and women dying in the field. They and this democracy deserved a bit more than what they got — celebrity generals, a supine Congress, inconsistent presidents and a watchdog press that merely rolled over to let Petraeus pet their bellies.

It’s been bad for our democracy. But good for several generals.

Carl,

Good point. Perhaps there’s just a bit of tarnish on the general’s celebrity now with Afghanistan not getting a success myth of its own. I don’t have anything against Petraeus — seems to be a credit to the nation. I’m not a fan of guru worship of any stripe so he just gets the dig on that.

As for the inept U.S. based reporting, I could not agree more. My wife returned this summer from a lovely 15 month tour with USF-I — she was in one of the shops where her job was to talk to our local “allies” off the FOB on a near daily basis. A few times a week she’d send me an email through one of our government computer systems (I’m a civilian REMF) asking if this FOB rocketing, that silenced pistol assassination wave, or the VBIEDs of the day, etc. made any news back home. These types of daily events were rarely covered in any U.S. based news outlets, and over the course of her tour I built up a roster of international news sources to build a very incomplete daily picture. In short, if one was to foolishly rely on US news outlets for information on Iraq, one would be almost wholly uniformed. I suspect that there are many other events and wars receiving similarly thin to absent press investigation.

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